How to Profit from Sports Betting
Making a steady profit from online sports betting can be hard. Even if you mainly bet for fun, winning always beats losing. So, read on for our best strategies to tip the odds in your favor.
Getting to Grips with Betting Value
Professional gamblers only bet when they see real value, and so should you. In fact, betting without value only helps you burn through your budget faster. Research is the key to finding value bets, which will help keep you in profit.
Recognizing Value Bets
In short, a value bet is one where you think an outcome is more likely than the odds suggest. If you think the chance is lower, it isn’t a value bet, so wait for the next opportunity.
For example, say the Seattle Seahawks face the Philadelphia Eagles in a regular season game. The Seahawks are priced at +140 to win. If you do the math, you will see the bookies give Seattle a 35.7% chance of winning.
However, your research shows the Seahawks have a 45% chance to win. In this case, you have a value bet, because you rate their chances higher than the odds do. On the other hand, if you had worked out a 30% chance, it wouldn’t be a value bet.
Understand How Sports Books Calculate Their Odds
Sportsbooks use complex algorithms to work out the likelihood of each outcome. In addition, they try to predict where the betting public will put most of its money. As a result, patient and savvy bettors can exploit these built-in biases and swing the odds in their favor.
Betting Bias Example
Most casual bettors avoid risk and back the favorite. Also, they do very little research, often looking only at the last two or three games. Therefore, they don’t really understand each team’s true chances.
Without proper research, they rarely judge a game accurately. Instead, backing the favorite usually comes from wanting a ‘sure thing’. Because of this bias, favorites are often overpriced, while underdogs offer excellent value.
Casual bettors also prefer high-scoring games. For example, they usually bet the Over in points totals markets rather than the Under. However, this only shows what the public wants to happen, not what is most likely.
This trend creates a bias in totals markets in both pro and college football. So, the Under is often the best value, if you are willing to bet that scoring will be lower than expected. Taking advantage of this kind of bias is called “betting against the public.” In fact, spotting these bets is an essential skill for any successful bettor.
How to Find Opportunities for Value Betting
Understanding value betting is one thing. Still, it doesn’t help much if you can’t spot a value bet when you see one. A great starting point is to look for biases in online betting markets. This skill takes practice and patience. However, once you master it, you will find many great value bets.
One of the best ways to get good at spotting value is to specialize. For example, focus on NCAA football lines or NBA point totals. That way, you will get a better feel for each team’s true potential.
As you gain experience, you may even want to build your own algorithms to help you spot value.
Of course, this is an advanced skill. It requires deep knowledge of betting and probability theory. You will also need strong technical skills to collect and analyze data with programming. Even so, bettors who reach this level will find plenty of value bets.
Stick to Your Budget
Setting a budget and sticking to it comes down to the old saying: “don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.” If you treat betting as a long game, set a budget you are comfortable losing, even for small stakes.
A good starting point is a betting bank of 200 units. Each unit can be any cash amount you like. For example, with 200 units worth $10 each, your bank would be $2,000.
This may seem very cautious. However, it is a proven strategy that has stopped many bettors from going broke. In fact, even the world’s most successful bettors started small. Then, they grew their bankroll by patiently waiting for value bets. It may not be exciting, but it beats looking at a zero balance.
Practice Patience and Maintain Discipline
It’s hard to be patient when you want action, and waiting for value bets can feel like torture. However, without patience and discipline, the urge to chase losses can take over and wipe out your profits.
Sometimes, results will go against you, and losing streaks will happen. Still, it is essential to stay disciplined and know when to walk away.
Improving Your Level of Discipline
One of the best ways to improve your discipline is to keep accurate records of all your bets. For example, record the odds, the result, the market, the sportsbook and why you placed each bet.
Detailed records will show you when poor discipline let you down and how much it cost you. In fact, if accurate records don’t improve your discipline, you probably won’t enjoy long-term profits.
In the end, discipline means sticking to the basics. First, only bet when you see value. Second, only bet what you can afford to lose. Nothing can guarantee success. However, these habits will greatly improve your chances of long-term profit.
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