Home field advantage is one of the most important factors to consider before placing a bet. In general, teams play better at home than on the road. This matters a lot for NFL betting in particular.
In fact, home field advantage plays a bigger role in the NFL than in most other major US sports. Teams in other leagues still win more often at home. However, from a bettor’s point of view, the effect is smaller.
Oddsmakers typically value home field advantage at about 3 points. In other words, a home team playing an equally matched opponent will usually be around a 3-point favorite. Of course, the true value of home field varies from team to team. Still, it affects the point spread far more often in the NFL than in other leagues.
Experienced football handicappers always factor home and away games into their analysis. In fact, it is a key part of any objective, stats-based prediction.
However, home field advantage is only one piece of the puzzle. So, before you bet, consider these other factors too.
Other Factors to Consider
Playing Surface
Some experts make a big deal about the type of field a team plays on. In fact, surface differences tend to matter more in college football than in the NFL. Recently, some of these experts have even studied different types of artificial turf in detail.
In theory, faster teams benefit more from playing on artificial turf. However, this is not true for every position. For example, at the positions where speed matters most, most NFL players can excel on natural grass too.
Travel
Playing at home means a team doesn’t have to deal with the stress of travel. Instead, players can focus on the game itself. This benefit has nothing to do with the stadium or the schedule.
Team Characteristics
Understanding each team’s strengths and weaknesses will help you make better decisions about home and away games. After all, good teams can win on the road, and bad teams can lose at home. In general, teams trying to break into the league’s top tier often show the biggest gap between home and road results.
Is Home Field Advantage Enough?
Despite its importance, home field advantage alone is not enough to base a bet on. There are always exceptions, and especially against the spread, a game can still go either way.
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